Investigating Drivers of Cisco Recruitment in Lake Superior
The goal of this project is to investigate which processes affect the survival of larval Cisco (Coregonus artedi) to mature adults (recruitment). My focus for this project is identifying which biotic (abundance of competitive or predator species, invasive species etc.) and abiotic (winter duration, water temperature, nutrient loading etc.) factors link to Cisco recruitment. We will use three different mathematical models to establish strength of evidence of each hypothesized driver of recruitment. Our three quantatative methods include:
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1. Multivariate Auto-Regressive State Space Models
2. Empirical Dynamic Models
3. Bayesian Spatial Delta-glmm Models
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Funding for this project was provided by Minnesota Sea Grant's 2022-2024 Biennial Request for Proposal Program. Every two years, MNSG awards approximately $2 million in research grants through a rigorous, competitive, peer-reviewed process. Researchers based in Minnesota, who are not federal employees, are invited to apply. Grant awards average about $45,000 per year for two years, plus a graduate research associate whose cost does not count against the project budget.
Project Goals
Understanding the biotic and abiotic processes that are linked to recruitment of Cisco can identify possible management actions to promote cisco restoration (e.g., control of non-native predator species), and help set expectations for Cisco population abundance and harvest potential under future conditions. Additionally, the methods developed by the researchers will provide powerful tools that could be applied to other species in other systems.
Throughout this project, we hope to work with managers and other scientists in the community. Our project also plans to include numerous meetings with stakeholders, presentations at professional societies, quantitative workshops focused on teaching three methods we are applying.
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Cisco
Cisco (also referred to as Lake Herring) are members of the salmonid family. They are common and native to Lake Superior and are also found in a number of cold, clear inland lakes in Minnesota. Cisco body forms and shapes vary in different parts of the Great Lakes. Cisco spawn in the fall, and during spawning may form large aggregations. They are harvested as a food source for humans and for their eggs (roe) which is sold as caviar in the United States and overseas. They are also a major prey base for game fish, especially Lake Trout in Lake Superior.
Outreach Plan
The proposed outreach plan includes numerous meetings with stakeholders, presentations at professional societies, peer-reviewed publications, and quantitative workshops focused on teaching the three modeling methods we will be applying. Building on hypotheses established by prior researchers, we will look at climatic and temperature variables, indices of predators, indices of competitors, indices of spawner abundance, and measures of habitat quality.
1. Academic dissemination
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Of the work in a peer-reviewed publication and through the presentation of our work at an academic conference(s).
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2. Commercial Fishery Presentations
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Our team will present to commercial fishery stakeholders near the start and end of the project period. Prior to beginning the work, we plan to inform commercial fishery stakeholders of the planned work and provide a venue to get feedback from them. These meetings will be used to determine any additional hypotheses the community may have and incorporate them as part of the work. Once the statistical analyses are concluded, our team will meet with the commercial fishery stakeholders again to share project findings, particularly as it relates to the original narrative they helped to build.
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3. Great Lakes Fishery Commission and Lake Superior Technical Committee Presentations
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Presenting the work to the Great Lakes Fishery Commission and Lake Superior Technical Committee throughout and at the end of the project period. Prior to beginning the work, our team will present our planned work to these groups. These meetings may also provide opportunities to gather necessary data from collaborators. The goal is to have two meetings per year with these groups, or more if they choose. Cisco populations from other Great Lakes remain at low levels and it is possible that these methods may prove useful in elucidating drivers of failed recruitment in other Great Lakes.
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4. Workshop
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A workshop on quantitative method(s) which yielded the greatest results based on the data to interested parties including University graduate students, federal and state researchers, and other interested researchers. Presentations and workshop materials will then be available online as a resource for future work (via GitHub and Zenodo). Funding would also be allocated to help students and early career scientists to attend these workshops.
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Overall Goal
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The goal of the outreach effort is to include as many parties in the project as possible. Lake Superior Cisco stocks are managed by various Tribal agencies, three states (Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota), and Ontario, Canada. The plan is to include data from each of these management agencies. Presenting and meeting with the various groups (stakeholders, committees and commissions and scientific audiences at conferences) ensures our team can widely source data as well as more easily disseminate project findings. The workshops will enable others to use these methods in different lakes and/or species as well as fostering greater understanding of results from this specific project. We believe this multi-pronged approach will increase participation in the data sourcing for this project; increase the probability that results lead to action (e.g., by focusing future research efforts or informing management regulations); and grow capacity for similar work to be undertaken within the Great Lakes region on other commercially, economically, or ecologically valuable species.
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